Buy-in volumes could reach a record £55bn in 2026, according to a new forecast from LCP, as strong insurer pipelines and competitive pricing continue to support high levels of pension risk transfer activity.
In its annual outlook for the pension risk transfer market, the consultancy said buy-in volumes are expected to fall between £40bn and £55bn in 2026. The current record of £49.1bn was set in 2023. LCP also expects 2025 volumes to exceed £40bn once full-year insurer results are reported in March.
The upper end of the forecast assumes a continuation of the attractive pricing conditions seen over the past year, alongside a substantial pipeline of transactions already reported by insurers.
The outlook follows a year of significant merger and acquisition activity among bulk annuity providers. Three of the eleven insurers active in the market announced acquisitions in 2025, with Pension Insurance Corporation acquired by Athora and Just Group acquired by Brookfield in July. Shortly before Christmas, Utmost’s life and pensions arm was acquired by JAB Insurance.
All three transactions are expected to be completed in the first half of 2026.
LCP said continued overseas interest reflected the scale and maturity of the UK bulk annuity market and the volume of long-term asset inflows it attracts.
Charlie Finch, partner at LCP, said: “The UK buy-in market continues to demonstrate remarkable depth and strength alongside an expanding range of wider endgame options. Our forecast of £40bn to £55bn of buy-ins in 2026 reflects robust funding levels and a substantial pipeline of deals, supported by highly competitive insurer pricing.”
Customer service increasingly important
Member experience is expected to move further up the agenda in 2026. LCP predicts all active insurers will be able to offer online benefit modellers by the end of the year, with more than half offering online self-service retirement. More than 150,000 members are expected to move to buyout in 2026 and receive individual annuity policies, compared with around 50,000 in 2024.
Imogen Cothay, partner at LCP, added: “Insurers are investing heavily in technology, with administration and member experience being a strategic priority. This will benefit schemes of all sizes, with more efficient journeys to buy-out, and a boost in online functionality for members as digital engagement becomes the norm.”
The outlook aligns with LCP’s longer-term analysis published at the end of last year, which highlighted record funding levels, growing insurer capacity and a strong pipeline of insurance transactions.
That report suggested cumulative buy-in volumes could reach £350bn to £550bn over the next decade, with nearly half of UK DB schemes already estimated to be fully funded on a buyout basis and the proportion expected to rise sharply over the next five years.
