Defined benefit (DB) pension schemes could see their liabilities rise by around 0.5% depending on demographics after new mortality data was released.
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) this week published its latest projections model based on 2025 data. It reported that men aged 65 have life expectancies around eight weeks higher than the 2024 model, while women’s life expectancy at 65 rose by around six weeks.
The data reflects a continued decline in mortality since the spike linked to the Covid-19 pandemic. Mortality across all ages in England and Wales was the lowest on record in 2025, the CMI said.
“After a turbulent period for mortality during the pandemic, we have seen a return to more normal conditions.”
Cobus Daneel, Continuous Mortality Investigation
Stephen Caine, director and senior mortality consultant at WTW, said: “The overall impact on a scheme will depend on the age profile of its membership, but scheme liabilities will generally increase by around 0.5% for schemes adopting the [new] model.”
He added: “Updating mortality assumptions will typically bring about a small increase in liability values for schemes with an actuarial valuation this year compared with the CMI_2022 [model], which is likely to have been used for the previous cycle of triennial valuations.”
Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI’s Mortality Projections Committee, said: “After a turbulent period for mortality during the pandemic, we have seen a return to more normal conditions. A fall in mortality in 2025 has led to a further increase in projected life expectancy.”
However, he emphasised that the outlook for mortality “remains uncertain”. Daneel said: “We encourage users of our model to consider adjusting the model’s parameters to reflect their own portfolios and views on future mortality.”
The CMI overhauled its mortality projection model last year, changing the way it accounted for the Covid-19 pandemic. It opted to use an overlay approach to reduce the skew effect of pandemic mortality on future trends.
