On the go: Insurers only expect the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on future mortality improvements to affect life expectancy by less than 1 per cent, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries has said.
“We know how the pandemic has affected mortality rates during 2020 and 2021, but the effect on future rates is less clear,” the IFoA said on June 30.
It cited a Continuous Mortality Investigation survey, in which half of its respondents “indicated no change in life expectancy at age 65 at the end of 2022, with the remaining respondents indicating falls of either 0.5 per cent or 1 per cent”.
“No respondents indicated a rise in life expectancy,” it added.
There has been a mixed assessment of the pandemic’s effect on schemes. A rise in mortality rates, pressures on the healthcare system, and the cost of living crisis may see schemes’ liabilities lowered by around 2 per cent in the coming years, according to analysis from LCP in May.
The financial impact of excess deaths across 2020 and 2021 has been relatively small, but the real consequences of the pandemic — such as belated diagnoses for chronic diseases — will be felt in the long term, the consultancy reported.
The virus yielded more than 100,000 more deaths in England and Wales than might otherwise have been expected, representing only an approximate 1 per cent drop in liabilities, Barnett Waddingham said in February.
It warned, rather, that schemes need to consider the medium-term impact on longevity wrought by the pandemic.
